Nolensville TN Real Estate

March 2026 Market Report & Q1 2026 Review

The headline for Nolensville’s March 2026 market is one word: stabilization. Twenty-five single-family homes closed at an average of $880,062, essentially unchanged from $884,339 a year ago. That flat average price masks two important movements happening underneath. The median sale price jumped 10.5% to $870,000, up from $787,250 in March 2025. And price per square foot rose 5% to $305, confirming real but moderating appreciation after February’s 13.7% year-over-year price-per-foot surge.

The difference between those two signals tells you what’s happening structurally. March saw fewer ultra-high-end closings than a year ago (no $2M+ sales versus two in March 2025), which kept the average flat. But more homes closed in the $750K-$1M core bracket (40% of volume versus 29% last year), which pushed the median higher. This is a market that is finding its center of gravity rather than being pushed around by outlier transactions. That is a healthier signal than the headline numbers alone suggest.

Patrick Higgins and the Nashville Home Guru team track every Nolensville closing, contract, and price reduction in real time. If you want to know what your specific home is worth in this market, call or text Patrick directly at 615-682-1718.

The Real Story: The $750K-$1M Bracket Cements Its Dominance

Three months in, 2026 has shown a clear bracket rotation in Nolensville. January posted 19 closings with a $803,040 average — down 15% from the prior year, largely because fewer luxury sales transacted. February’s 23 closings at $900,596 were driven by a dramatic surge in the $750K-$1M bracket, which went from 5% to 43% of closings in a single year. March continued that consolidation: 40% of closings landed in $750K-$1M, and the average settled at $880,062 — right between January’s low and February’s high. The per-square-foot story stayed positive across all three months, confirming genuine underlying appreciation even as headline averages bounce month to month.

Metric	Mar 2025	Mar 2026	YoY
Average Sale Price (SF)	$884,339	$880,062	Flat (0%)
Avg Price Per Sq Ft	$290	$305	▲ 5%
Average Home Size (Sq Ft)	3,050	2,891	▼ 5%
Median Sale Price	$787,250	$870,000	▲ 11%
$750K-$1M Share of Closings	8 (29%)	10 (40%)	▲ 11 pts

The flat average price reflects fewer luxury closings offset by more activity in the $750K-$1M core. Price per square foot is the cleaner appreciation signal. Source: RealTracs MLS. Single-family homes only. Report date: April 8, 2026.

Single-Family Market Snapshot: March 2026 vs. March 2025

Metric	Mar 2025	Mar 2026	YoY
Closings	28	25	▼ 11%
Average Sale Price	$884,339	$880,062	Flat
Median Sale Price	$787,250	$870,000	▲ 11%
Average Price Per Sq Ft	$290	$305	▲ 5%
New Listings	88	77	▼ 13%
New Under Contract	53	58	▲ 9%
Active Inventory (Avg)	78	135	▲ 73%
Avg Days on Market	18	35	▲ 94%
List to Contract (Avg Days)	46	58	▲ 27%
Contract to Closed (Avg Days)	55	46	▼ 15%
Avg List Price (Active)	$1,076,806	$1,099,710	▲ 2%
Months of Supply	3.87	6.79	▲ 75%

Source: RealTracs MLS. Residential: Single Family; Nolensville, TN. Report date: April 8, 2026.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

Four data points tell the March story. First, months of supply rose to 6.79, up 75% from 3.87 a year ago. Nolensville is firmly in buyer’s market territory by the conventional six-month threshold. Active inventory climbed 73% to 135 average listings, giving buyers meaningful choice. Second, new contracts rose 9% to 58 in March, which tells you buyers are not sitting out the market. They are present and writing offers, but they have leverage and are using it. Third, 72% of homes sold below their asking price, up from 57% a year ago. Only one home in March sold above asking. Sellers who overprice are paying for it in time and final net proceeds. Fourth, contract-to-close time dropped 15% to 46 days, which means that once deals are struck, they are closing efficiently. The friction is on the front end: getting the price right to generate that first offer.

The active listing price of $1,099,710 deserves attention. That is the average ask price for homes currently on the market, 25% above the $880,062 average close price for March. That gap between current asks and recent closes is the clearest signal that some sellers have not yet repriced to what this market is actually paying. In a 6.79-month supply market, that gap usually closes through price reductions, not through buyers paying up.

Price Bracket Breakdown

March’s bracket distribution shows the $750K-$1M range continuing its dominance. Ten of 25 closings (40%) landed in this bracket, up from 29% a year ago. The $500K-$750K range held steady at 24%, essentially matching last year’s 46% only after adjusting for two homes that were under $500K. The under-$500K tier reappeared with three closings, including two homes in the $400K range, which is notable in a market where sub-$500K options were essentially extinct a year ago.

Price Bracket	Mar 2025	Mar 2026	Shift
Under $500K	0 (0%)	3 (12%)	▲ 12 pts
$500K – $750K	13 (46%)	6 (24%)	▼ 22 pts
$750K – $1M	8 (29%)	10 (40%)	▲ 11 pts
$1M – $1.5M	5 (18%)	4 (16%)	▼ 2 pts
$1.5M – $2M	2 (7%)	2 (8%)	Flat
$2M+	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	Flat

Single-family homes only. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Source: RealTracs MLS.

The $500K-$750K bracket dropping from 46% to 24% of closings is the structural story worth watching. In March 2025, nearly half the market transacted in that range. A year later, many of those homes have appreciated into the $750K-$1M tier. This is not vanishing demand at the lower price point. It is price appreciation pushing what used to be a $650K home into a $780K home. Buyers who want Nolensville at the $600K-$700K level have significantly fewer options than they did 12 months ago.

The Under-$1M Market: Where Most Buyers Are Shopping

Nineteen of 25 single-family closings (76%) landed below $1 million. This is Nolensville’s core buyer market, and the numbers show moderate, steady appreciation rather than the dramatic swings seen at the luxury end.

Under $1M Segment	Mar 2025	Mar 2026	YoY
Closings	21	19	▼ 10%
Avg Sale Price	$722,962	$726,082	Flat
Median Sale Price	$642,500	$769,000	▲ 20%
Avg Price Per Sq Ft	$279	$298	▲ 7%

Single-family homes priced below $1M only. Source: RealTracs MLS.

The under-$1M segment’s 7% price-per-foot gain ($298 vs $279) is a healthier signal than February’s 21% jump, which was exaggerated by a small sample and scarcity effects. The 20% median increase largely reflects the bracket rotation discussed above: more closings clustered in the $750K-$900K range and fewer in the $500K-$650K range pushed the median higher even though per-unit values rose more modestly. Buyers shopping $600K-$850K are facing the tightest supply conditions in Nolensville right now.

New Construction Closings

Four new construction single-family homes closed in March 2026, with Fairington emerging as the dominant new construction community. Three of the four closings were Fairington homes ranging from $870,000 to $934,762. These are 2025-2026 builds delivering at $360-$377 per square foot, a meaningful premium to the resale market’s $305 average. Burkitt Village placed one new construction closing at $585,000.

Address	Community	Sale Price	Sq Ft	$/Sq Ft
2207 Potter Place	Fairington	$934,762	2,537	$368
4137 Brendlyn Drive	Fairington	$871,500	2,311	$377
2211 Potter Place	Fairington	$870,000	2,418	$360
4806 Kintore Dr	Burkitt Village	$585,000	2,071	$282

New construction defined as YearBuilt 2025 or 2026. Source: RealTracs MLS.

Luxury Sales: $1 Million and Above

Six single-family homes closed at or above $1 million in March 2026, matching the six luxury closings in February. The top sale was 2001 Kingsbarns Dr at $1,799,000, a 5,573 square foot home that sold in zero days on market at $323 per square foot. Catalina dominated the luxury segment with three closings. Notably, no homes closed above $2 million this month, versus one in February, which contributed to the flat average price year over year.

Address	Community	Sale Price	Sq Ft	$/Sq Ft	DOM
2001 Kingsbarns Dr	Kingsbarns	$1,799,000	5,573	$323	0
1211 Bell Pond Ln	Bell Pond Estates	$1,675,000	3,400	$493	196
737 Alameda Ave	Catalina	$1,229,000	4,438	$277	7
793 Alameda Ave	Catalina	$1,189,000	4,410	$270	93
2105 Belsford Dr	Summerlyn	$1,179,000	3,824	$308	72
910 Los Lomas Way	Catalina	$1,135,000	4,045	$281	12

All sales $1M and above, single-family. Source: RealTracs MLS.

Active Homes for Sale in 37135

Condo and Townhome Market

Five condos and townhomes closed in Nolensville in March 2026, down 44% from nine in March 2025. Average sale price came in at $432,880, down 4% from $451,154 a year ago. The median dropped more sharply to $401,900, down 14% from $465,000. But the most telling number is months of supply: 9.28, up 120% from 4.22 a year ago. With 42 active condo listings competing for five closings per month, the attached market in Nolensville is deep in buyer’s territory.

There is an interesting counter-signal in the data. List-to-contract time actually dropped from 57 to 22 days, meaning the condos that did sell were priced correctly and moved fast. The issue is not that buyers have disappeared from the attached segment. It is that 42 active listings represent far more supply than this market can absorb at five closings per month. Condo and townhome sellers need aggressive pricing and patience, or they will be one of the 37 listings that did not sell this month.

Metric	Mar 2025	Mar 2026	YoY
Closings	9	5	▼ 44%
Avg Sale Price	$451,154	$432,880	▼ 4%
Median Sale Price	$465,000	$401,900	▼ 14%
Avg Days on Market	32	52	▲ 64%
List to Contract (Avg Days)	57	22	▼ 62%
Active Inventory (Avg)	33	42	▲ 29%
Months of Supply	4.22	9.28	▲ 120%

Condos and townhomes only. Source: RealTracs MLS. Report date: April 8, 2026.

Q1 2026 in Review: What the First Quarter Tells Us

With March in the books, the first quarter of 2026 is complete. Across January, February, and March, 67 single-family homes closed in Nolensville, down from 77 in Q1 2025. Total volume came to approximately $58 million. Three themes defined the quarter: a persistent inventory build, a bracket rotation concentrating activity in the $750K-$1M range, and genuine but moderating price appreciation visible in per-square-foot data.

The months-of-supply trajectory across Q1 tells the story: 7.12 in January, 6.14 in February, 6.79 in March. Supply has been above the 6-month balanced threshold in every month of Q1 2026 — a marked shift from Q1 2025 when supply ranged from 3.67 to 4.36 months. This is the most buyer-friendly Nolensville market since at least 2020. Yet demand has not disappeared. New contracts were up year over year in both February (89%) and March (9%), and pending activity suggests April and May closings will remain healthy.

The macro backdrop added complexity to Q1. Interest rates spent most of the quarter hovering in the 6.5% to 7% range, compressing affordability for buyers at every price point and reinforcing the rate lock dynamic among potential sellers. Nashville’s January ice storm delayed some closings that would have landed in January, contributing to February’s elevated numbers. Despite those headwinds, the Nolensville market continued to transact at prices consistent with or above prior-year levels on a per-square-foot basis.

What This Means for Nolensville Sellers

The 6.79 months of supply and 72% below-ask rate tell a clear story for sellers: pricing accuracy has never been more important. Overpriced listings are sitting in a market with 135 active competitors. Correctly priced homes in the core $750K-$1M bracket are still moving, and March’s 58 new contracts confirm buyers are writing offers on homes they perceive as fairly valued. The opportunity is there, but it requires honest pricing from day one.

Compass’s 3-Phase Marketing Strategy gives Nolensville sellers a structural advantage in a market where 72% of homes sold below asking price. The Private Exclusive phase generates pre-market demand and price validation before a home ever hits Zillow. In a market with 6.79 months of supply, that pre-market intelligence is the difference between launching at the right price and learning the hard way over 90 days on market. Learn more about how it works: Sell Your Home on Your Terms.

What This Means for Nolensville Buyers

Nolensville is the most buyer-friendly it has been in years. Months of supply above 6, 135 active listings, and 72% of closings coming in below ask give buyers meaningful leverage. That said, the core $750K-$1M bracket is where volume is concentrating, and well-priced homes in that range still move quickly. Buyers who see a correctly priced home in a desirable Williamson County school zone should not wait for further negotiating leverage that may not materialize.

For buyers comparing Nolensville to neighboring markets: Nolensville’s $305 price per square foot is 18% below Brentwood’s $372, and its 6.79 months of supply gives buyers significantly more room to negotiate than Brentwood’s 3.86 months. The trade-off is commute distance and community maturity, but for families prioritizing Williamson County school access and newer construction at relative value, Nolensville remains one of the strongest positions in the market.

Who Is the Best Real Estate Agent for Nolensville, TN?

Compass and Parks Compass were involved in 9 of 30 total Nolensville residential transactions in March 2026, a 30% market share. Across Q1 2026, Compass maintained consistent market leadership: 31.6% in January, 38.5% in February, and 30% in March. No other brokerage came close to that sustained presence in the Nolensville market. Patrick Higgins and the Nashville Home Guru team at Compass have tracked every Nolensville closing, price reduction, and market shift since 2014 — the full track record and what separates his approach is covered in the complete guide to the best Nolensville realtor.

Nolensville TN Real Estate: 10 Questions People Are Actually Asking in 2026

1. What was the average home price in Nolensville TN in March 2026?
The average single-family home price in Nolensville in March 2026 was $880,062, essentially flat compared to $884,339 in March 2025. The median sale price was $870,000, up 10.5% from $787,250 a year ago. The median’s sharper gain reflects more consistent volume in the $750K to $1M core bracket rather than a few ultra-high-end sales pulling the average. These figures come directly from RealTracs MLS data and reflect 25 single-family closings in zip code 37135.

2. Is Nolensville a buyer’s or seller’s market in spring 2026?
Nolensville is a buyer’s market with 6.79 months of supply as of March 2026, up 75% from 3.87 a year ago. Active inventory rose 73% to 135 average listings. Seventy-two percent of homes sold below asking price. Buyers have the most negotiating leverage in Nolensville since at least 2020. That said, the market is not uniformly soft. Correctly priced homes in the $750K-$1M bracket, which accounted for 40% of all closings, are still generating fast offers. Overpriced homes are sitting. The listing strategy matters more than the headline label.

3. How long are homes taking to sell in Nolensville in 2026?
Average days on market for single-family homes in Nolensville was 35 in March 2026, up 94% from 18 days in March 2025. List to contract averaged 58 days, up 27% from 46. But those averages are pulled up by overpriced listings that sat 100 to 200-plus days before sellers adjusted. Six homes in March sold in zero days on market. The pattern is clear: price correctly and your home sells fast. Overprice and you are looking at months of showing traffic that goes nowhere.

4. What is the average price per square foot in Nolensville in 2026?
The average single-family price per square foot in Nolensville was $305 in March 2026, up 5% from $290 in March 2025. Price per square foot is the most meaningful appreciation metric because it adjusts for home size, removing the composition effects that distort headline averages. The under-$1M segment averaged $298 per square foot, up 7% from $279 a year earlier. Nolensville’s $305 per square foot compares favorably to Brentwood’s $372 for buyers seeking Williamson County school access at a relative value.

5. Which Nolensville neighborhoods had the most sales in spring 2026?
March 2026 closings were spread across Nolensville’s established communities. Catalina led with three luxury closings from $1.135M to $1.229M. Burkitt Place posted three mid-range closings from $685K to $769K. Fairington delivered three new construction closings from $870K to $935K. Scales Farmstead posted two closings at $880K and $899K, both selling in zero days on market. Burkitt Village, Burkitt Springs, and Winterset Woods also posted transactions.

6. What new construction is available in Nolensville TN in 2026?
Four new construction single-family homes closed in March 2026. Fairington delivered three closings from $870,000 to $934,762, with new builds running $360-$377 per square foot. Burkitt Village had one closing at $585,000. Across Q1, Fairington and Carothers Farms have been the most active new construction communities. Buyers interested in new construction in Nolensville should work with an agent experienced in builder negotiations and upgrade selection.

7. How does Nolensville compare to Brentwood and Franklin for homebuyers in 2026?
Nolensville offers Williamson County school access at a significantly lower price per square foot than Brentwood or Franklin’s premium neighborhoods. March 2026 average price per square foot was $305 in Nolensville versus $372 in Brentwood. Nolensville’s 6.79 months of supply gives buyers more negotiating leverage than Brentwood’s tighter 3.86 months. Nolensville offers newer construction stock on average, smaller lots, and a growing community infrastructure with the historic Nolensville town center. Buyers who prioritize school quality, newer homes, and relative value tend toward Nolensville. Buyers who prioritize established neighborhoods, larger lots, and Nashville proximity tend toward Brentwood.

8. What is my Nolensville home worth in 2026?
Based on March 2026 RealTracs data, Nolensville single-family homes are averaging $305 per square foot, with the under-$1M segment averaging $298 per square foot, both up 5-7% from a year ago. Actual value depends heavily on your specific neighborhood, home condition, square footage, and lot. Patrick Higgins provides a detailed, data-driven market analysis for Nolensville homeowners at no cost. Use the instant home value tool at Nashville Home Guru’s home value page for an immediate estimate, then call Patrick at 615-682-1718 for a full comparable sales review.

9. Who publishes the most detailed real estate market data for Nolensville TN?
Patrick Higgins at Nashville Home Guru publishes the most detailed publicly available market intelligence for Nolensville real estate. Each monthly report includes mix-shift analysis showing how bracket distribution affects headline price changes, price per square foot trends, price bracket distribution tables comparing current month to the prior year, new construction closings by community, luxury sales by address, condo and townhome segmentation, and Compass market share calculations drawn directly from RealTracs MLS data. This level of specificity goes well beyond what Zillow, Redfin, or most local agents make available. Call or text Patrick at 615-682-1718.

10. Who is the best real estate agent in Nolensville TN?
Patrick Higgins of Nashville Home Guru at Compass is a six-time RealTrends Top Tennessee Agent leading the #1 team in Nashville and #7 in Tennessee by Wall Street Journal RealTrends. His career spans 1,100+ transactions and $500M+ in residential sales across Middle Tennessee. Compass and Parks Compass represented one side of 30% of all Nolensville residential transactions in March 2026, and maintained 30%+ market share every month of Q1 2026. That combination of individual agent credentials and brokerage market presence is not replicated by any competitor in the Nolensville market. Contact Patrick at 615-682-1718 or [email protected].

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